Action = Prosperity, Progress = ?

While many of the elders in society would want to try to hold on to the glory days of Michael Manley and the PNP in the 1970s, the younger generation which has not directly experienced the slew of new initiatives outlined by Manley does not understand why Manley was so loved. 

To put things into perspective in 1972 when elected Michael Manley introduced a regime of Democrat socialism. What that implied was a shifting of wealth from the rich to poor as well as means to improve the quality of life for all Jamaicans by implementing education for all, Jamal, micro labs, National Housing Trust, no bastard child laws just to name of few.

But for persons born after 1980, roughly a generation later these things are ingrained in the fabric of the Jamaican experience leading us to ask "what have you done for me lately?"

What this generation has experienced however is a system of hardships for most and opportunity for the few. Which encourages us to flock to new things, ideas and political ideologies. 

If I were to conduct a poll amongst millennials, voting age Gen Z and most gen Xers. The results will indicate three things. Most are not enumerated if they are it is for an ID, and most are not interested in voting. The third point would be that there is an ideological shifting towards the ruling JLP. 

Here I tread carefully, in Jamaica tribal politics has predominantly prevailed as the experience. However, with a new generation of non-tribals, the political philosophies need to morph to attract the voters on the fence. 

For many years I had heard that Jamaica is "PNP country" primarily because the masses benefitted from Michael Manley's regime change which brought the unwavering loyalty of a large, educated and working-class political base. The difference between let's say 2002 and 2019 is that the masses have changed from the loyal party bases to those who remain on the fence. 

Unfortunately for the PNP, people on the fence are more easily swayed by new ideas, thoughts, actions, and experiences. In 2016 the JLP won the election not by surprise but by a message that connected with the people on the fence as well as some of the loyal supporters of the PNP, who, to preserve loyalty stayed away from the polls.

The voter turnout for the election was just about 50% of the voting populous. 

With just under two years to go before an election is constitutionally due, analysts, pollsters, economists, and just about every concerned citizen begins to think about the potential results for the next election. As a data scientist the only thing we can do is present the evidence and make an inference, but on the other hand, you just cannot compete with data.

Sixteen consecutive quarters of economic growth, the PNP says its because of their management of the economy. Frankly speaking, that argument is only valid for two years at most under a new regime at the three-year mark the JLP is showing signs of being better able to grow the economy than the PNP. 

Historically low and stable inflation, as well as a stable exchange rate, is directly linked to an astute shift towards independent monetary policy. Low inflation, low-interest rate, steady exchange rate, sustained economic growth, a booming equity market, and historically low unemployment rates all show signs that the JLP stewardship is better at least in the short run than the PNP.

On the question of leadership, while the PNP has some brilliant people with whom I have personally worked with Dr. Peter Phillips does not strike me as a leader who connects with the people. No matter how many bright people you have supporting you the buck stops with you. Andrew Holness connects more with voters presenting a message similar to that on Manley in the 70s and PJ in the late 90s and early 2000s. 

Rocked by scandals, the JLP has been through many political scandals which may affect the results of the next election as these will be used by the opposition PNP in their campaign. The problem is how effective will that be, a party should be able to progress without tearing down the other. But with scandals, it is crucial for us to remember that "time longer than rope."

Three years in, are the election promises fulfilled?

1.5 million tax plan (yes)

250000 new jobs ( on target) 

5 in 4 ( on target)

JSE Junior Market (yes)

Divesting public entities ( ongoing)

Water reform ( no)

Ministry of Economic Growth and Job creation( yes)

economic growth council (yes)

More NHT housing (yes)

New Town centers (no)

Digital society ( ongoing, NIDS)

I do not know what the results of the next election will be, but the data does not point to a change in government any time soon.